Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee32bba0d48df4a2e3b2443f51d8896d027a96ecb60874e447b5240a4bcbaea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 12c | 1,489$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 678.8$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 46c | 596.24$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…20b3backed Yes | 31c | 539.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 23c | 429.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.97 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 380.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 276.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 27c | 261.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed No | 77c | 254.54$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 43c | 252.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 68c | 244.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 29c | 224.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 204.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 202.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 37c | 197.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 36c | 183.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 178.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 176.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked No | 76c | 162.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 159.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 65c | 155.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 64c | 154.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 149.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 68c | 142.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 32c | 119.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 111.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 99.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 59c | 98.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 26c | 97.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 97.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 50c | 92.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 68c | 85.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 85.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 38c | 76.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 76.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 76.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 72c | 68.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 27c | 67.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 42c | 65.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 43c | 62.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 62.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 42c | 61.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 73c | 59.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 75c | 59.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 70c | 56.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 44c | 56.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 38c | 54.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 49c | 51.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 43c | 50.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 72c | 49.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 42c | 49.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 46c | 48.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 35c | 48.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 48.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 48.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 35c | 45.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 35c | 41.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…8e50backed Yes | 55c | 39.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 39.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 32c | 39.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 60c | 39.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 70c | 38.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3e…8b58backed No | 76c | 38.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…fe46backed No | 77c | 38.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 39c | 37.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c88cbacked Yes | 35c | 37.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 34c | 36.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 37c | 36.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 34.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 32.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 71c | 27.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4eafbacked No | 78c | 26.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 73c | 25.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 61c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 66c | 23.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 22.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 47c | 21.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 77c | 21.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…0574backed Yes | 54c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…111cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed Yes | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 66c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.