TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No12c1,489$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.981,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c678.8$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No46c596.24$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.887558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51a…20b3backed Yes31c539.76$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes23c429.83$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.9745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes26c380.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.021,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No72c276.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4481165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No27c261.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed No77c254.54$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed Yes43c252.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.75451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No68c244.64$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8637942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes29c224.05$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c204.79$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.455,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c202.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0321429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes37c197.55$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.046240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes36c183.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c178.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c176.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.771,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a8…0cecbacked No76c162.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No9c159.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.356219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No65c155.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes64c154.66$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.413246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c149.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.424,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes68c142.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.556041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No32c119.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.142,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c111.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.917,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c99.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.013,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed No59c98.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5814637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes26c97.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.721850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes35c97.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes50c92.65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.141656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+71.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No68c85.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.579959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes35c85.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3946444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes38c76.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4722450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c76.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes27c76.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No72c68.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.398138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes27c67.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No42c65.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.487972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes43c62.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.492951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No77c62.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8419059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes42c61.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2952533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No73c59.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7820266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No75c59.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes70c56.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1226142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No44c56.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x715e…c3b0backed No38c54.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes49c51.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.856553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…63f0backed Yes43c50.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.753265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.59534.7%33 W · 62 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No63c49.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4912068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No72c49.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6912363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No42c49.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7515435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No46c48.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4642049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes35c48.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No72c48.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c48.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.492,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed No35c45.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0815346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes35c41.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1453547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No76c39.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x773b…8e50backed Yes55c39.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No75c39.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…cef2backed Yes32c39.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.032850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes60c39.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8135362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No70c38.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.149462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3e…8b58backed No76c38.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa014…fe46backed No77c38.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes39c37.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.087846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf028…c88cbacked Yes35c37.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes34c36.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.954857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed No37c36.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.387639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes54c34.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No72c32.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.919361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No76c32.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes66c28.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.895635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No71c27.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.496845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes39c27.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.574245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed No77c26.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.416030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb74d…4eafbacked No78c26.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No73c25.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8122934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes61c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.341,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes66c23.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.091,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No66c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.181,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes58c22.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6618255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c22.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.524,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…8be6backed Yes47c21.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.443961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed No77c21.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4141733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes67c21.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0221547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567c…70a5backed No61c20.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd26…0574backed Yes54c20.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…111cbacked Yes57c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcc…788cbacked No73c19.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213171%22 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No67c19.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9634151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x450e…0694backed Yes66c19.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes66c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0621930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.