MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b32eab5aeb48dd977941df3bc1c2b07250ff8b25990d65b2103adfe28de128d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 9,039$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 49c | 4,299$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 49c | 4,288$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 4,287$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 3,052$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 63c | 1,905$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.72 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 1,771$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 38c | 1,168$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.48 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 584.7$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 38c | 513.63$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 36c | 299$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 298.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 62c | 280.75$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 248.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 63c | 236$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 37c | 155.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 75c | 143.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 87.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 14c | 81.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 55c | 39.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 35c | 36.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 49c | 29.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…fdcfbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 51c | 24.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.