NBA · resolved market
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b61ac25a2f193c49bdfbb7d13e06846c6439b88ed1c4639aa57965975fa3e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,850$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 8c | 3,382$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.88 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 4c | 2,991$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…1b41backed Yes | 49c | 2,035$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,631$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 9c | 421.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 9c | 375.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 16c | 227.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 192.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…ffe0backed Yes | 17c | 134$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…79eebacked Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9a72backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3this page
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-1No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-2No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-3No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-0No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.