NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4aef2efba24952e78dfc256e06c7a25e873a0a018af81450250ed5adb5abef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 27c | 5,567$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 75c | 5,199$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.65 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 74c | 1,200$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,055$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.41 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 70c | 977.06$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 32c | 929.87$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.81 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 73c | 900$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.63 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 68c | 887.45$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.07 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 33c | 375$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 143.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…a215backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…aaa6backed Yes | 32c | 52.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…4d66backed No | 71c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…2a9dbacked No | 74c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…3b07backed No | 74c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…c640backed No | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-1this page
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-2No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-3No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-0No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2Yes won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.