NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ddb8fa4226039da11df3cc71a509eb67f6fba22e7ceafdc982951c21d1458e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 10,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 25c | 9,133$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 78c | 3,500$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,777$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.49 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 34c | 2,061$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.57 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,258$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 23c | 1,199$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 20c | 791.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Yes | 38c | 706.84$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 73c | 595.76$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 79c | 461.85$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 70c | 419.84$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…8deebacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 294$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 235.78$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 220$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 185$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Yes | 23c | 128.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 66c | 116.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…8518backed Yes | 37c | 67.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3b11backed Yes | 52c | 46.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-2this page
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-1No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-3No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-0No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2Yes won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.