NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49774b43ce2c79ace5cc5f988b9415890b7ea6fa8c495ecaed477598e82ab8d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 31c | 2,583$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,032$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…2c21backed Yes | 35c | 950$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 72c | 426$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 35c | 410$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 27c | 392.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 9c | 368.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 30c | 327$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 70c | 188.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 64c | 171$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…79eebacked Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…5bd7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 36.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-3this page
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-1No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-2No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-0No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-1No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-2Yes won
- Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.