MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b898618f7061e002ad4585e24a4694e090b187fb90af31e77e881eacba807fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 68c | 1,294$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 22c | 648.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 451.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 435.82$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 395$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 77c | 362.93$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 79c | 309.01$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 59c | 293.22$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 266.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 21c | 239.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 58c | 193.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 60c | 169$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 60c | 143.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 125.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 119.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 32c | 78.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 60c | 62.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 22c | 59.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 42.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 78c | 42.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 40.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 35c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 74c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.