MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371bca74356093d17c94eb9c49cc503a69b3ae0f6bbb7ae478f1eb93e7364410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 50c | 11,693$5,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,846.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…ca76backed Under | 50c | 10,443$5,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,221.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 5,643$2,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 3,995$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,991$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,369$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 1,325$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.6 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 960.57$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 50c | 575.28$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 443.13$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.13 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 34c | 338.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 319.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 301.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 30c | 207.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 9c | 189.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 148$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 70c | 114.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 51c | 84.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 33c | 77.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 57.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 54.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 54c | 40.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 48c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 70c | 38.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Under | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 50c | 34.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 31.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 51c | 24.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.