TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,163 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins39c577.45$225 inWon+$352.066,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers63c489.47$307 inLost-$307.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Rangers66c398.97$263 inLost-$263.321,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins34c398.97$136 inWon+$263.323,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers40c268$107 inLost-$107.123,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers53c248.56$131 inLost-$130.511,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins35c202.08$72 inWon+$130.5713264.4%85 W · 47 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins61c145.07$88 inWon+$56.582,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers45c118.66$53 inLost-$53.332,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins30c109.92$33 inWon+$77.332,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers69c95$66 inLost-$65.654,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins29c60$17 inWon+$42.61,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Texas Rangers34c57.38$20 inLost-$19.5179543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins59c55$33 inWon+$22.354,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins55c45.26$25 inWon+$20.515,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers65c43.77$29 inLost-$28.5410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins67c42.39$28 inWon+$13.9977836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Texas Rangers34c40$14 inLost-$13.561948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins46c38.71$18 inWon+$20.94,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins59c38.54$23 inWon+$15.748,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Texas Rangers37c36.17$13 inLost-$13.3470546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Miami Marlins66c25$17 inWon+$8.529549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Miami Marlins76c15.18$12 inWon+$3.6674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.