MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80fd7b5e01732ceffd177ee8f87529a5c6e0c57107fa755f8de9dcc0200a3321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 419.43$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 339$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 285.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 285.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 273.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 154.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 78.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 24c | 75.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 62.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 59.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 59.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 52.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 50.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 35.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 34.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 68c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…f8b1backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…a0fcbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…59c1backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…f3fabacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…e1ccbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…b36cbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.