MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116edced58ef6b83db7a930147cac41261b348d81ede2349ec7477f857e9221d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.31 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 6,432$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…fa1bbacked Under | 8c | 4,340$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +1,746.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 3,461$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…cf79backed Under | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +352.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 11c | 2,194$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 43c | 1,713$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.33 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,540$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,296$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 1,012$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 63c | 818.33$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 664$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 619.93$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 401.38$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 48c | 254.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 242.51$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 219.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 44c | 216.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 8c | 209$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 176.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 52c | 111.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c64…cb99backed Under | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 52c | 81.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 56c | 81.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 56c | 77.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 33c | 52.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 52c | 49.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 66c | 48.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 26.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 55c | 25.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 49c | 24.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.