Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7baae44420c6f0bb62d3db6ddccf569e4d00dfd82e182ce2e1a854f70e5999c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 441.03$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 321.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 269.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 44c | 218.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 208.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 8c | 141.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 127.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 125$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 123.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 119.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 117.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 108$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 55c | 106.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 102.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 102$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 97.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 92.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 89.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 86.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 86.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 32c | 83.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 81.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 79.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 77.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 25c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 34c | 67.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 55.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 47.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 53c | 40.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 39.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 34.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 34.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 68c | 33.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 32.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 67c | 31.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 20.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 19.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 16.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.