South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bbc323de22341d6638ae1f59c9c770f65a8fe8dfea0ea511f77865145dac5f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes | 28c | 14,915$4,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,709.28 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 6,368$4,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.41 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 72c | 2,950$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.82 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 2,070$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.12 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 72c | 1,974$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.6 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 54c | 1,557$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.19 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked No | 40c | 1,200$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 1,125$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 72c | 1,082$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.69 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 75c | 1,001$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 997.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.48 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 72c | 983.2$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.9 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 42c | 962.53$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 71c | 884.34$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.88 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…4164backed No | 16c | 554.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked Yes | 62c | 481.81$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 457.86$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 457.86$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 448.34$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.8 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 60c | 397.91$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 72c | 344.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 72c | 305.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed No | 14c | 301.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 40c | 235$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 71c | 180$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 62c | 163.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 49c | 158.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 71c | 153.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 64c | 148.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 141.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 30c | 127.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 39c | 124.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed No | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 39c | 113.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 39c | 113.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Yes | 67c | 112.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 24c | 108.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed No | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2a9cbacked Yes | 63c | 97.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…9745backed No | 71c | 83.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 55c | 81.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 15c | 78.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 77c | 76.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…2e59backed Yes | 33c | 72.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 39c | 70.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 65c | 70.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Yes | 65c | 70.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 39c | 70.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…db07backed No | 33c | 67.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 39c | 67.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Yes | 60c | 65.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 65c | 64.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Yes | 28c | 62.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 60c | 58.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 55.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…271bbacked Yes | 59c | 54.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 59c | 52.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…3371backed Yes | 72c | 49.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…6d93backed No | 51c | 44.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed Yes | 33c | 44.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…9e71backed Yes | 73c | 40.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Yes | 62c | 28.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Yes | 75c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 75c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 75c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 72c | 24.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 75c | 22.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…0d29backed Yes | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 60c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 18.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked No | 64c | 17.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…6573backed No | 72c | 16.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 15.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…2c87backed Yes | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-09?this page
- Will Carabobo FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?No won
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.