Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bbfefece40a4aceb69a8ff8249c4520177d9a9e6436ee3155831e6c083c7abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 34c | 3,066$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.62 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…67c6backed No | 65c | 699.58$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 61c | 433.28$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.04 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 396$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 303.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 222.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 214$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 213$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 35c | 201.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.23 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 191.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 185$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 170.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 10c | 166.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 141$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 137.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 121.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 101.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 98.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 38c | 96.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 86.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 82.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 35c | 76.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 68.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 65.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 63.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 54.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 51.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 49.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 47.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 30c | 47.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 43.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 42.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…f085backed Yes | 38c | 41.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 40.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 64c | 36.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 34.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 34.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 33.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 31.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7d…ae9bbacked No | 65c | 27.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 41c | 24.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…7e2abacked No | 65c | 24.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 61c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 75c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.