La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd27e4766c650058ff8f4be66994622b18371a9de3e8b7eff5c4b5eb1bbccc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Over | 76c | 1,232$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.68 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 24c | 917.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 24c | 438.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked Over | 74c | 207.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 22c | 200.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 26c | 200.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 68c | 178.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 101 | 68.3%69 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 78c | 94.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 22c | 54.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…17dabacked Over | 79c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed Over | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Over | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…6b53backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.