La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeffbe004d548a5e1ebcad050b2b198ca0d9e7bf5943e866cb363530f6b0795b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over | 31c | 1,329$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 657.34$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.4 | 1,169 | 51.8%606 W · 563 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 598.72$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.3 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 70c | 501.8$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 836 | 40%334 W · 502 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 27c | 475.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 74c | 342.5$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 70c | 324.06$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 75c | 262.07$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 215.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 123 | 69.9%86 W · 37 L | +29.7wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 202.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 70c | 196.79$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 68c | 188$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 174.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 615 | 57.7%355 W · 260 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 171.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 77c | 146.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 607 | 32.5%197 W · 410 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 70c | 139.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 71c | 131.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Over | 31c | 123.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 18c | 121.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…38a1backed Under | 51c | 95.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe7…1405backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 70c | 86.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Over | 51c | 74.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 70c | 65.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 30c | 64.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 69c | 50.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 47.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Over | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 39.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 828 | 44.8%371 W · 457 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 38.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 70c | 36.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 70c | 36.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 70c | 36.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 234 | 56.4%132 W · 102 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 70c | 35.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 54c | 23.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 73c | 21.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.