La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf080296c0c7f0fb553c2dcd82748c8e03657c93f2617b445532d4bc94958a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 15c | 2,775$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.96 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 1,599$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.29 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 30c | 604.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.58 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 66c | 594.71$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.96 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 33c | 494.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 104 | 18.3%19 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 29c | 475.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 30c | 292.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 15c | 226.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 69c | 206.09$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Under | 18c | 173.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 15c | 158.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 155.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 60c | 143.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 142.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…73a3backed Under | 13c | 140.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 15c | 132.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Over | 15c | 126.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 15c | 126.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 40c | 118.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 106.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 77c | 97.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 35c | 82.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 77.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 69c | 51.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 50c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -58%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 76c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.