Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bde3baace50b68b0fd377dc12684db62432ee59939404b0cfe2f6cabe04ba2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eintracht Frankfurtof VfB Stuttgart, Eintracht Frankfurt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed VfB Stuttgart | 16c | 2,813$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.1 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 21c | 1,400$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 65c | 379$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 17c | 279.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VfB Stuttgart | 20c | 257$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed VfB Stuttgart | 17c | 149.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed VfB Stuttgart | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 80c | 81.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed VfB Stuttgart | 17c | 74.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed VfB Stuttgart | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 68c | 61.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VfB Stuttgart | 30c | 54.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 39.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 20.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.