Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bebed202103d0b11f8cf94821c192a0ef0f4cd3792b25e1553407e1a2e79a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 21c | 2,307$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.08 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 27c | 859.54$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.67 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 746.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 688.24$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 76c | 611.78$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 25c | 525.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 502.07$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 74c | 389$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 75c | 388.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 22c | 382.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 78c | 350.22$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 76c | 249.28$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 21c | 248$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 75c | 237.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Under | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 72c | 190.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 25c | 190.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Over | 76c | 171.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 160.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 71c | 155.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 25c | 149.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over | 75c | 146.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 70c | 142.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 21c | 138$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 16c | 101.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 76c | 80.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 25c | 78.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 75c | 63.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 25c | 53.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 76c | 50.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 24c | 47.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 76c | 45.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d9b8backed Under | 26c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Over | 76c | 40.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 76c | 38.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 76c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…f0dcbacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…133cbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 76c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…7855backed Over | 76c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…0451backed Over | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.