Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7be027222e580b86a519b08d872ac446317bab84126dcc4796d59c4e25ceb0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,012$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.53 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 75c | 1,339$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 32c | 781$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 33c | 600.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.56 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 541.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 260.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Over | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 30c | 193$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 29c | 156.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 153.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 35c | 129.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 67c | 127$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 67c | 125$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 45c | 110.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 70c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 65c | 78.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 34c | 63.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9932…f309backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 41.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 64c | 41.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5this page
- SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5Over won
- SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5Over won
- SK Brann vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)SK Brann won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.