Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf887144a998fb08eb1a107d54a89382ae12604b8a4a1ea237240463085a87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 16c | 6,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,039.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 16c | 4,274$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590.5 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 3,816$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.14 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 15c | 3,482$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.77 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 17c | 3,050$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,531.5 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 34c | 2,532$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.05 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Yes | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 15c | 1,031$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 16c | 967.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 42c | 714$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.12 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…ef3bbacked Yes | 78c | 639.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 25c | 504.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7380…8c1bbacked Yes | 71c | 489.59$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 45c | 277.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 20c | 247.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…7c33backed Yes | 76c | 206.16$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Yes | 79c | 180.2$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 78c | 150.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…0d12backed Yes | 71c | 130.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 71c | 113.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…c9ffbacked Yes | 72c | 111.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 26c | 107.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…0d45backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…3237backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…3612backed Yes | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…c2bcbacked Yes | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Malmo FF vs. Ludogorets end in a draw?No won
- Will Malmo FF win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.