TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0f5…3d04backed Nigma Galaxy13c10,407$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.0451049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit78c2,772$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.5180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit72c1,895$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.3279959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Team Spirit78c1,806$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.681650%8 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Nigma Galaxy26c1,569$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.375841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked Nigma Galaxy29c1,499$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.688746%40 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Nigma Galaxy20c1,498$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4133549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Nigma Galaxy24c1,427$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit76c1,422$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Nigma Galaxy27c1,392$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.0325935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Nigma Galaxy23c999.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy19c848.53$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2229240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy27c845.09$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Nigma Galaxy22c780$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy20c752.21$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.221,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Nigma Galaxy14c721.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5725147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Nigma Galaxy22c691.82$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit78c671.42$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.532,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28f…9185backed Team Spirit71c589.56$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb36…113fbacked Nigma Galaxy28c579.83$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.471442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy36c550$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19841055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a1…790dbacked Team Spirit71c520.78$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1854…be98backed Nigma Galaxy28c507.1$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.991850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Team Spirit70c503.78$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3611836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit75c499.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Team Spirit79c485.82$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.621062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Spirit77c448.2$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9223555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Team Spirit72c426.61$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.812725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12061548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy21c393.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.682,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Nigma Galaxy16c380.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3113228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Nigma Galaxy32c377.63$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Nigma Galaxy44c376.65$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3629347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit70c367.96$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.191,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit64c366.9$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.082,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Spirit68c360.59$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3932148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Nigma Galaxy31c349.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.515051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Nigma Galaxy13c346.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1878516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Nigma Galaxy23c315.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4119145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy24c294.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5961745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Nigma Galaxy15c293.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.711150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x984b…88fbbacked Team Spirit77c271.08$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.355160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Nigma Galaxy24c247.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.639837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Nigma Galaxy31c247.19$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6946451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Team Spirit74c246.1$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9815064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Spirit72c244.13$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy34c223.95$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.811,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Nigma Galaxy26c220.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3414832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Team Spirit73c209.38$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.617149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Spirit76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Nigma Galaxy23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4673743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f11…5d87backed Nigma Galaxy22c193.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.622045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit70c179.13$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Spirit50c174.03$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Team Spirit67c159.41$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.697142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Nigma Galaxy35c157$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9524636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Nigma Galaxy20c156.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0124137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Nigma Galaxy29c148.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2230356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy21c141.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Nigma Galaxy24c138.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy21c137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Nigma Galaxy26c133.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.813243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit77c133$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.591,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Nigma Galaxy14c128.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy31c125.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2337745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy31c123.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6559250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit80c123.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.734667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa203…63c0backed Team Spirit69c112.37$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.131330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit69c103.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.061,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d66…ffc9backed Team Spirit70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Team Spirit69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3111254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Nigma Galaxy20c96.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0425246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Nigma Galaxy16c89.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5320954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Spirit70c87.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2336051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Spirit75c82.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Nigma Galaxy29c78.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.619639.6%38 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked Nigma Galaxy27c70.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.127741.6%32 W · 45 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Spirit70c68.74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6241244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Nigma Galaxy23c67.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6925253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Spirit73c64.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3355457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked Team Spirit79c62.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1936761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Team Spirit76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.418065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit72c53.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Nigma Galaxy21c51.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.726956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e67…0f23backed Team Spirit72c41.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.737263.9%46 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Spirit72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Team Spirit77c38.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8422961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed Team Spirit68c35.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3813262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit78c35.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Team Spirit80c33.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6722868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed2…f173backed Team Spirit76c30.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd77…6223backed Team Spirit66c29.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.144665.2%30 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Spirit75c25.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5457654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit73c25.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.891,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Team Spirit64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Spirit72c22.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Spirit63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7733854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Team Spirit78c19.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.394351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.