Movies · resolved market
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c8058f164ca47f638b1a60f0fd3cb9cc921fde56d75fb90c4f114a7c6b20186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 16c | 1,877$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.61 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 74c | 1,177$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 77c | 1,173$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.77 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 24c | 1,130$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 17c | 772.15$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…5e90backed Yes | 75c | 542.05$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 448.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 439.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 371.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 330.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 299$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 14c | 297.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 15c | 277.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 274.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 13c | 249.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 70c | 242.34$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 12c | 206.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 196$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 16c | 185.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 184.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 171.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed Yes | 65c | 159.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 151.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 17c | 140.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 14c | 79.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 79.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 73.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 75c | 51.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 48.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.