MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c833eefc934a40e3b1d964b257c85bccd4c176ff77059975fdc103d60fce265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 53c | 20,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,499.99 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 7,775$3,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 48c | 7,150$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.21 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 3,014$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 2,922$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 1,984$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,331$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,312$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 1,111$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.28 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 52c | 1,052$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.15 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 963.77$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.13 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 597.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 47c | 569.78$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.96 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 53c | 551.19$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 477.95$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 332.3$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed Under | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 250$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 56c | 153.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 49c | 150.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 149.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 144.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 49c | 134.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 132.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 117.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 49c | 116.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 110.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 37c | 105$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 68c | 92.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 60c | 89.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 34c | 66.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 54c | 66.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 56c | 65.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 57.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…28ffbacked Over | 53c | 43.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 47c | 43.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Over | 59c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 34.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 54c | 34.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 47c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Over | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 47c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 58c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…fd01backed Under | 65c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 78c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.