Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf298fceace8717c690d16dc9bf38121516b059681b7337f2bdcf5de42e8930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 1,105$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 526.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 501.34$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…4773backed No | 76c | 393.61$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 72c | 373.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 333.38$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 67c | 233.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 230.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 27c | 228.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 73c | 192.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 166.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 144.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 15c | 144.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 132.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 78c | 128.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 24c | 111.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 28c | 93.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 90.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 33c | 72.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 30c | 69.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 68.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…2ffabacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 65.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 29c | 60.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 58.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 55.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 52.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 51.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 45.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 74c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 43.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 73c | 39.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 38.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 77c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 69c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…fa48backed No | 68c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.