Earnings · resolved market
Will Rumble (RUM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d370250f820f7b00cf54a1a7080f722c03ad649c41559e29520479a448c6f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 3,265$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.29 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 7c | 1,352$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 39c | 515$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.95 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…b001backed Yes | 16c | 339.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 41c | 296$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 43c | 224$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 53c | 213.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed No | 46c | 210$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 50c | 201.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…657abacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 60c | 185$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 57c | 176.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked No | 51c | 172.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 7c | 150.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 39c | 129.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 59c | 111$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 57c | 110.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…99b3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…b657backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…595bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fc…e088backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 98.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 50c | 71.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…eab2backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…6ab1backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 63c | 63.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…bbe3backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…fb7ebacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…ca51backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be4…ffb9backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f0…a328backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…60ccbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…e248backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…b12bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7327backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…792ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.