World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d42ffe8a3ccf17cbee5d26dbf135e2ec4af71ec45093e24d7520dbfd7022685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 10c | 1,511$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.85 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 18c | 1,451$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.52 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 918.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 603.18$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.27 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 593.26$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.1 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 8c | 533.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.46 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 512.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 312.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…49ebbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 19c | 299.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 293.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 281.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.71 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 222$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 194.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 191.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 30c | 186.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 151.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +209.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 149.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 74c | 131$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 123$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 116.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 115.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 52c | 115.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…2576backed Yes | 21c | 112.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 97.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 32c | 93.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 93.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 88.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 77.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 68.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 66.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 75c | 66.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 33c | 66.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 64.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 64.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 59.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 52.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 51.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 80c | 50.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 209 | 64.1%134 W · 75 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 47.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 43.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 41.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 71c | 41.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 37.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 36c | 36.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 33.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 198 | 69.2%137 W · 61 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 25.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 77c | 15.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.