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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes21c1,723$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.814323.3%10 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c1,085$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6114717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes5c1,073$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes27c840.55$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.212222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c603.39$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No67c524.4$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3212258.2%71 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c449.16$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6847137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c413.5$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1125652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c232.08$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7946329.4%136 W · 327 L-69.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes45c222.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.410024%24 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No74c200.74$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.142060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes34c193.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.724436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes7c189.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4916851.2%86 W · 82 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c181.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8921464%137 W · 77 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c162$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1437458%217 W · 157 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No62c161.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2710868.5%74 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes67c158$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5711453.5%61 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No74c152.79$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No66c146$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.78666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No13c135.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.587146.5%33 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes41c133.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546642.4%28 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No62c127.39$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.567051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No59c125.84$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.398556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes16c118.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.347423%17 W · 57 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes43c116$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.887935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No62c116$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No32c112.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5216251.9%84 W · 78 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…5abdbacked No58c105$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No66c104.49$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2115746.5%73 W · 84 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c104.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5313235.6%47 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes37c99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.363234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73e…4b96backed Yes33c96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes41c95.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.236144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes36c91.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes77c90$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.356845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c89.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes36c81.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.083351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No75c77.78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes38c76.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.432334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No58c74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0812139.7%48 W · 73 L-12.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked No75c73.33$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick71cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes41c73.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No68c73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.361573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No63c72.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.873852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes39c71.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288048.8%39 W · 41 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c70.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7533855.3%187 W · 151 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No57c69.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.665358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a5…1958backed Yes76c68.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No62c68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.992470.8%17 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c66.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6836154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No63c65.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.13964.1%25 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes43c65.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.018248.8%40 W · 42 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes34c64.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.275916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No57c64.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.395538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No59c63.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.95736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No58c62.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.412653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes40c61.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.657929.1%23 W · 56 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5510821.3%23 W · 85 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5552…6f16backed Yes39c51.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No79c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9916357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd5…62f3backed No68c50.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6517537.7%66 W · 109 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes31c48.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd846…b233backed Yes39c47.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No61c44.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.222343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No59c43.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.649637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0300…2576backed Yes41c42.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes36c40.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.414626.1%12 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.418345.4%83 W · 100 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+132%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No54c38.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0816455.5%91 W · 73 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No54c36.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.07825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes41c36.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9511942%50 W · 69 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes41c35.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6611040.9%45 W · 65 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes43c35.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.363145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No39c33.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.517654.5%96 W · 80 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No78c33.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed No62c32.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes39c30.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0730944%136 W · 173 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1423744.7%106 W · 131 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc282…6049backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.37346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf361…08f6backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No62c29.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.054766%31 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.38580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73a…140cbacked Yes71c27.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No61c26.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c25.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1117459.8%104 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1019949.2%98 W · 101 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x298d…6e93backed No62c24.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.27666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b8…e849backed No60c23.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No61c22.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No61c21.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.464872.9%35 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No65c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.457277.8%56 W · 16 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+28.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes49c20.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105151%26 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No60c20.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.