World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1fc1549b41266e88c199bf2380e4a8e5f496d72a63d1e62293b20419782dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 21c | 1,723$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.81 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 1,085$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 5c | 1,073$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 27c | 840.55$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 603.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 524.4$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.32 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 449.16$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.68 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 413.5$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 232.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 45c | 222.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 200.74$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 34c | 193.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 7c | 189.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 181.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 162$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 161.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 67c | 158$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 74c | 152.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 66c | 146$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 135.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 133.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 62c | 127.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 125.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 16c | 118.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 62c | 116$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 112.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 104.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 104.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 33c | 96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 41c | 95.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 89.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 81.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 75c | 77.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 38c | 76.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 63c | 72.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 39c | 71.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 70.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 69.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…1958backed Yes | 76c | 68.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 66.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 65.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 65.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 34c | 64.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 64.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 63.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 58c | 62.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 40c | 61.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…62f3backed No | 68c | 50.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 39c | 47.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 61c | 44.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 43.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…2576backed Yes | 41c | 42.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 40.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +132%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 54c | 36.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 35.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 33.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 78c | 33.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 30.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 237 | 44.7%106 W · 131 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 62c | 29.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…140cbacked Yes | 71c | 27.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 61c | 26.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 60c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 61c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 49c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.