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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes23c2,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.644323.3%10 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes26c943.11$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.242222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c805.62$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.746329.4%136 W · 327 L-69.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c642.83$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5547137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No44c509.19$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.312258.2%71 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No14c494.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4248359%49 W · 34 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No70c446.2$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.466157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x154c…658ebacked No78c425.55$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c413.52$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.425652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No77c412.83$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9513100%13 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c344.78$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.333855.3%187 W · 151 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No10c300$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.152050%10 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed No10c229.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.09540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+149.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c216.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8510868.5%74 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes40c215$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.035851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c211.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4555351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes20c202.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.075736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x593e…2f85backed Yes65c199.96$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No24c198.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.955916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No23c196.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.49140.7%37 W · 54 L+14.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes37c194.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.568724.1%21 W · 66 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c181.35$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7721464%137 W · 77 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed No62c168.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9110024%24 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No77c165.12$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.931752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No77c153.34$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.042290.9%20 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick74cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c151$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.737458%217 W · 157 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5115441.6%64 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c149.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9918734.8%65 W · 122 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes21c149.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.755538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c142.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.551,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2890…49ebbacked Yes47c139.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc73a…140cbacked Yes42c122.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c119.26$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9524760.3%149 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes32c116.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.964738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c106.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.615884.5%49 W · 9 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c103.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6326136.8%96 W · 165 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes24c102.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.657929.1%23 W · 56 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes19c101.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9613235.6%47 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0300…2576backed Yes30c97.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No56c96.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.05825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No26c96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.367146.5%33 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes15c95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2510454.8%57 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No77c93.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.456100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes69c92.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.091030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-60.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes16c84.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6415635.9%56 W · 100 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes69c84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.584353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c83.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8817952%93 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c82.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1343649.5%216 W · 220 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes72c79.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No75c79.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.832343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbff6…5cb2backed Yes66c77.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes75c73.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick71cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6128…e245backed Yes76c71.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No42c68.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.75358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c67.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3917537.7%66 W · 109 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93d…8b84backed Yes66c67.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c65.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018956.6%107 W · 82 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No59c65.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.643964.1%25 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No76c63.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.348556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c63.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4836154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes33c63.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.996914.5%10 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No28c60.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7516455.5%91 W · 73 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes38c60.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.832334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes19c60.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31b1…11d2backed Yes72c59.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.191546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes27c53.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No72c53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.832470.8%17 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No70c52.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.683060%18 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc2…d3afbacked Yes69c49.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes39c49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No74c47.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes35c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes29c45.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7e…ee7bbacked Yes36c41.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed No69c41.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.868248.8%40 W · 42 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked No75c40.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.112556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes33c40.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.067051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9820964.1%134 W · 75 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f9c…9236backed Yes53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes30c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84626.1%12 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes38c39.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1611135.1%39 W · 72 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c39.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6134140.2%137 W · 204 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd846…b233backed Yes26c38.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes75c38.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.881172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x298d…6e93backed No77c38.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.85666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No78c38.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No61c37.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.63351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes67c36.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick75cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No56c36.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.734151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa434…cf75backed Yes53c35.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No72c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No77c34.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.854872.9%35 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c34.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.194544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No68c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.895446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.