Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d87d6d45334aa9d11fb0b3ce1d5b267133951c4d1aa21633434ff1b44f0330a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 1,653$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 838.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 23c | 637.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 24c | 632$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 76c | 597.8$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 505.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 502.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 449.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 445.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 12c | 391.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 343.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 306.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 15c | 277.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 17c | 238.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 7c | 228.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 223.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 219.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 24c | 199.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 74c | 176.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 160.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 19c | 154.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 19c | 148.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 75c | 129.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 18c | 126.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 126.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…d020backed Yes | 13c | 122.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 21c | 105.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 100.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 57c | 97.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 95.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 68c | 88.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 23c | 88.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 79c | 85.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 17c | 84.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 72c | 83.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 19c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 42c | 80.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 15c | 79.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 29c | 78.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 20c | 69.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 63.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…4b53backed Yes | 33c | 60.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 19c | 56.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 53.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 77c | 38.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 45c | 38.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 64c | 36.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 33c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked No | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…dfb5backed No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…aecabacked No | 76c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 79c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 21.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 57c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.