Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bb6bc5545894bea8fb3094ce47904a8cd2b3dddcbb9a3a9230612e7024da6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,603$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 21c | 1,266$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 489.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 456.41$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 410.3$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 6c | 309.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 246.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 23c | 234.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 233.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 217.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed Yes | 9c | 212.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 16c | 211.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 79c | 182.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 26c | 156.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…eb97backed Yes | 7c | 151.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 100.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 90.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 80.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…0136backed Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 70.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 77c | 68.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 68.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 67.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 50.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 21.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…2953backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.