TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes3c4,832$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2128324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes5c1,734$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.049617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes11c1,154$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0310447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed No78c1,150$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.325349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c1,136$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes5c1,041$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.111,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c903.32$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.598,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No75c853.72$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.932,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No67c664.54$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.123246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes15c549.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1816038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes20c505.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4253925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes12c496.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7542820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes20c483.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.436624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes17c466.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.597132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No75c433.03$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8749646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes23c403.85$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes14c395.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c377.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No75c369.7$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4277151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes24c349$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.771,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes20c301.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes16c280.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.752,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes7c260.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28a1…69a1backed Yes30c251.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.475040%20 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No77c250.74$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2625230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.172,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c241.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.151,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c235$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.653,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No78c211.02$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes32c210.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2323731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes33c209.22$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.11741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes24c205.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.112,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ac…fce6backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes13c198.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.959436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No77c175.16$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.544542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes11c170.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c170$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.274,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No79c167.86$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.921,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c166.11$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.723,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes29c159.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes27c151.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3141966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5811146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No70c145.53$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes14c144.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.624045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes20c142.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.265,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes30c138.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.838247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes19c134.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2143050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes15c133.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4465353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c130.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c125.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.022,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes16c123.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes13c122$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1624542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c121.5$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.894,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes18c118.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8410463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes12c114.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5538146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes21c109.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0415334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes36c107.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.341,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes28c100.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.998947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3444448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a3…5f08backed Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c96.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.563,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes14c88.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.633429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes13c87.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+54.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7b4…5199backed Yes18c84.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.293357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c80.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.635,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No71c78.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes19c75.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4817020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes29c75.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes34c73.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5312466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c70.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.984,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes18c68.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.733327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5325…4066backed Yes37c68.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes27c67.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes24c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.319166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c63.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.263,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c0…64fabacked Yes32c63.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes23c62.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes31c61.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c61.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c61.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.096,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes26c60.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd6…ac42backed No79c58.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.171241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No80c57.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c55.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.624,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes23c55.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes18c55.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1713732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes18c55.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1719133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No78c54.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c49.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No68c48.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.694235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes37c48.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc406…dfb5backed Yes40c44.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.631650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c43.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.