Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58837d04def26ea312dc69fca279df34a89b77a3d14d2c7ab3f32e5eebf28e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 3c | 4,832$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 5c | 1,734$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,154$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed No | 78c | 1,150$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 1,136$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 1,041$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 903.32$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 853.72$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 67c | 664.54$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 15c | 549.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 20c | 505.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 496.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 20c | 483.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 17c | 466.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 75c | 433.03$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 403.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 395.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 377.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 369.7$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 349$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 20c | 301.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 280.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 260.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 30c | 251.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 77c | 250.74$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 241.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 235$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 211.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 210.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 33c | 209.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 205.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 13c | 198.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 77c | 175.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 170.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 167.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 166.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 29c | 159.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 27c | 151.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 145.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 14c | 144.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 20c | 142.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 30c | 138.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 134.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 130.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 125.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 16c | 123.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 121.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 18c | 118.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 12c | 114.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 21c | 109.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 107.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 28c | 100.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 96.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 14c | 88.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 13c | 87.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 18c | 84.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 80.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 78.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 19c | 75.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 75.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 73.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 70.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 18c | 68.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…4066backed Yes | 37c | 68.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 27c | 67.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 24c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 63.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…64fabacked Yes | 32c | 63.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 23c | 62.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 61.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 61.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 61.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 60.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed No | 79c | 58.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 57.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 55.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 55.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 18c | 55.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 18c | 55.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 54.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 49.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 68c | 48.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 48.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…dfb5backed Yes | 40c | 44.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 43.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.