Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0737fb274c4fe3b9942ad3e3b9965b717f42f8159a91907e8f455f8381ff7ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 27c | 2,348$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.69 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,707$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,673$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 1,396$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 32c | 720.32$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.07 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 607.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.77 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 499.94$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 51c | 418.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 34c | 417.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 367.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 357$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 15c | 325.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 297.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 292.09$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 287.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 268.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 254.17$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 246.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 209.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 79c | 202.37$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 200.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 177.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 170$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 168.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 162.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 12c | 162.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 157.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 152.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 37c | 147.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 146.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 140.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 135$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 30c | 133.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 124$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 116.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 114$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 102.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 97.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 48c | 91.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 88.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 49c | 85.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 33c | 80.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 80.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 58c | 77.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 77.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 60c | 76.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 79c | 71.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 21c | 64.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 65c | 63.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…516cbacked Yes | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…dedfbacked Yes | 78c | 53.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 74c | 51.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 50c | 48.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 46.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 77c | 40.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 37c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed Yes | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 35.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 35.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 67c | 34.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 32.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…5bbbbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 64c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 71c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 24.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 22.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.