TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes27c2,348$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.6928324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c1,707$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.6910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c1,673$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.098,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No43c1,396$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.492,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6802,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes32c720.32$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.079617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes30c607.73$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.7721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c499.94$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.296,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes51c418.74$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes34c417.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.81,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c367.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.511,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c357$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.354,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes15c325.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.141,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c324.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c297.81$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No69c292.09$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No53c287.8$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c268.77$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.392,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No61c254.17$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.211,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c246.71$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.156,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c209.94$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.993,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes79c202.37$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5811146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes16c200.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.211,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1348139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No53c177.63$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3838860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c170$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes14c168.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.051,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes10c162.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.89,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes12c162.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No73c157.22$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0742366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No71c152.18$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.051,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes37c147.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes40c146.9$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No30c140.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.382,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No69c135$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes30c133.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3612853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x29ae…c79fbacked No79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005945.8%27 W · 32 L-10.0wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes33c124$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.083,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No71c116.97$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c114$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c105$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No73c102.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5114878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No60c102$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8244448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7215961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7212453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6064…1af8backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c97.47$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.144,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed Yes48c91.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.574161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes55c90.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.374065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c90$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.783,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c88.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No49c85.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed Yes33c80.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.368560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No77c80.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes58c77.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c77.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.214,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes60c76.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9921340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes16c76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes79c71.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8310827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No74c67.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.72,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No21c64.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.811566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes65c63.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x917e…516cbacked Yes51c54.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.751190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick63cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b06…dedfbacked Yes78c53.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes54c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes74c51.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4953951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No46c49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.652,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No50c48.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6217020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c46.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes80c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1825947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes23c44.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.645054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes47c43.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes78c43.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5335264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed Yes77c40.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.393748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c39.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No37c37.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7319663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No55c36.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8825877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1db…7f42backed Yes71c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c35.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.294,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c35.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.912,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes67c34.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2324751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed No80c32.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.658871.6%63 W · 25 L+0.4wins0.00per pick71cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21f…5bbbbacked No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No70c28.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes73c27.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4961676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes64c27.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.821,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes71c25.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.312748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes43c24.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.012,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked Yes50c22.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.255255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No78c22.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.421,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa158…acacbacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.