NFL · resolved market
Shedeur Sanders on Browns Week 1 Roster?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dbddf8ae850445ed0cfacc033ccd196673fc76550b8893272edd663cd20e25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 5c | 800.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 16c | 633.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 28c | 296.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 77c | 177.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 75c | 138$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 118.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked Yes | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 74c | 64.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 73c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.