NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7de0c5774d46e50b211a580f9482b8da8d7113eba92e82ee7a596e782afd0a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 46c | 3,353$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.6 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Under | 54c | 2,100$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.2 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 50c | 1,235$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.86 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 962.74$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.82 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 612$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.22 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 391.18$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 339$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 55c | 263$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 53c | 249.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 176.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 52c | 153$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 54c | 138.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 47c | 136$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 59.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…29acbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 50c | 49.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 52c | 37.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 48c | 32.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…0bebbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2df…2f6bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. PenguinsMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.