TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$311,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$342,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef54…d1eebacked Maple Leafs50c56,774$28,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,226.1717749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Penguins51c35,000$17,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,85042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Maple Leafs51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7007850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Penguins46c26,649$12,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,361.5930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Penguins50c25,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,50010554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Maple Leafs49c19,100$9,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,740.8113251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs49c13,293$6,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,779.3338748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8aa…3434backed Maple Leafs13c12,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Maple Leafs50c8,522$4,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,261.063056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins49c7,799$3,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,855.131,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs48c6,268$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.261,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Maple Leafs50c6,090$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,052.9932251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Penguins50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Penguins52c5,987$3,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,109.610352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Penguins50c5,025$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.515949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Penguins49c4,897$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.5352050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Penguins1c4,832$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7154418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Penguins51c4,544$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9815954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Penguins0c4,302$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.037450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins50c4,058$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.152,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Penguins49c3,333$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.1522546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins49c2,552$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.641,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Penguins49c2,024$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.7192848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9928353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.947546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Penguins51c1,774$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.7764242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs49c1,677$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.3638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Penguins34c1,641$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5585651.8%29 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f32…1d64backed Penguins52c1,540$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins43c1,540$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.2175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Penguins50c1,500$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7456162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Maple Leafs48c1,431$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.1824654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins50c1,416$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.071,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0a…a0dcbacked Maple Leafs50c1,350$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3bf…6851backed Maple Leafs51c1,300$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4918…fe96backed Penguins51c1,220$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb0…e093backed Penguins51c1,180$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Penguins51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9968449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs48c1,093$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.331,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Penguins51c1,078$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac5…f064backed Maple Leafs50c1,050$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Maple Leafs49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4143743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcad…c851backed Penguins40c1,006$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.193636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed Penguins50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Penguins50c960.8$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.41,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc335…841fbacked Maple Leafs50c928$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8cc…f052backed Maple Leafs50c928$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd247…b156backed Maple Leafs50c926$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Maple Leafs50c918$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0906…c09cbacked Penguins51c909.8$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3b…42a7backed Penguins51c909.8$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f1…bc7abacked Penguins51c907.84$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…d1e5backed Penguins49c900$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Penguins50c893$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0387447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maple Leafs54c808$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0361848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a1…6b32backed Penguins52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4161457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x128f…c388backed Maple Leafs49c760$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.61752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs49c720.27$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.5554047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs63c711.82$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8595049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Maple Leafs49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3578956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Penguins49c692$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.081,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…2268backed Maple Leafs49c680$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb9…41ecbacked Penguins52c670$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.41668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c28…f8c7backed Maple Leafs49c650$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc9…0b56backed Penguins52c620$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.42740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57ba…2481backed Maple Leafs52c600$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29113554.1%73 W · 62 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e1…d5bcbacked Penguins50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007450%37 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Penguins26c550.25$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.751,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Penguins49c550$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.521147.4%100 W · 111 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Maple Leafs50c516.63$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3219942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Maple Leafs48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2607157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb9…c20dbacked Penguins52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Maple Leafs48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26045955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Maple Leafs48c468.65$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5116246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Penguins52c452.29$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1919548.2%94 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Penguins50c416.8$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.472448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Penguins50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…d774backed Penguins49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc557…6496backed Maple Leafs69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1242259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Maple Leafs49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20431851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Maple Leafs50c398$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.629850%49 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Penguins50c359.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9923642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Penguins50c351.96$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9830152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Maple Leafs50c340.81$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4112648.4%61 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Penguins16c340$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3682043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Penguins11c334.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.582,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93b1…2c4ebacked Maple Leafs65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.692867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d32…fe50backed Penguins53c296.68$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Penguins50c282.86$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5748452.3%253 W · 231 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Penguins36c280.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Maple Leafs50c260$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1303357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x789e…fd45backed Maple Leafs49c250$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Penguins48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12074951.8%388 W · 361 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Penguins18c247.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7760141.9%252 W · 349 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d89…d5a6backed Maple Leafs55c243.15$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.37977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+58.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Penguins51c208.47$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.329754.6%53 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb0…b0dcbacked Penguins51c205.88$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9264…ec96backed Penguins51c205$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Maple Leafs49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.