Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df6663307c2ba4a4556eb2b087ac7ed4d6576f29d99e55e49e19e60f8abc6fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 16c | 297.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 37c | 133$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 129.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 119.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 57c | 118.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 14c | 109.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 42c | 108.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 73.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 73.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 61c | 68.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 65c | 61.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 58.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 39c | 55.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 54.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 53.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 47c | 52.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 50.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 60c | 45.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 64c | 44.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 59c | 44.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 49c | 43.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 43.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 49c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 36.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 33.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 44c | 33.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 47c | 27.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 62c | 26.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 21.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 69c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.