MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dff035aea85240393de131bde3aaa7825620f3d2a7ab41c2f74ba231a4228ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 10,500$3,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,969.93 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 62c | 9,450$5,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 63c | 5,520$3,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 4,800$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 16c | 3,392$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 2,487$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.1 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 60c | 1,272$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,015$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 62c | 754.98$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 627.3$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 379$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed New York Mets | 63c | 372.57$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.01 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed New York Mets | 63c | 372.57$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.01 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked New York Mets | 63c | 372.52$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed New York Mets | 61c | 350.95$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 289.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed New York Mets | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked New York Mets | 63c | 229.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Mets | 63c | 219.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 63c | 217.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…69ddbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 188.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed New York Mets | 63c | 158.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Mets | 64c | 149$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 63c | 146.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 135.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed New York Mets | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 90.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed New York Mets | 61c | 59.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed New York Mets | 61c | 53.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked New York Mets | 63c | 39.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Mets | 63c | 39.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Mets | 61c | 37.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 27.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked New York Mets | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.