MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb6cb3fe90f5d9965b3d1bf676a767b8b4f58acc1eba70f5cea8208f4974646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 13,243$7,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,018.65 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Under | 53c | 6,219$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 5,786$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 4,821$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.87 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 4,243$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 49c | 3,776$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.51 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 2,048$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 2,003$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.58 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 36c | 1,551$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.41 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 1,530$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,020$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 50c | 996.64$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 868.02$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 779.69$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.85 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 678$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.16 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 664$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.92 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 515.38$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 457.35$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 433.87$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 47c | 425.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 388.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 48c | 379.94$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 262$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 48c | 227.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 208.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 47c | 170.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 146$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 66c | 139.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 47c | 127.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 72c | 115.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 49c | 87.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 59.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 50c | 41.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…6690backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 53c | 34.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 51c | 30.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.