MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ca67d27d69e1114fb90f8cede8d958b9994117275d17b46230506e6a175ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 2,955$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 2,539$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 2,282$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 48c | 1,082$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.03 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 993.52$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 44c | 951.34$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.59 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 904.83$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Over | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 729.29$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 41c | 499.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 59c | 399$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 42c | 374.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 71c | 317.92$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 49c | 301.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 39c | 270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 59c | 254.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 48c | 230.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 34c | 183$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 48c | 117.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 48c | 117.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 60c | 103$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 59c | 101.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 91.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Over | 30c | 88.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 82.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 81.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 59c | 76.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 58.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 41c | 57.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 56.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…c1e4backed Under | 58c | 41.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 59c | 34.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 27.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 45c | 26.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 45c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 53c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 57c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.