Champions League · resolved market
FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e1a347c5381896facb97a9d7fde2cbc1f3b58186a5f222d77fd6b9b79768dc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 76c | 1,517$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.07 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 24c | 826$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…f5e0backed Under | 28c | 357.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 307.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 290$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 24c | 279.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 231.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 129.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 71c | 117.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Under | 25c | 98.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 61c | 59.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)GNK Dinamo Zagreb won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)GNK Dinamo Zagreb won
- Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5)FC Thun won
- Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.