Champions League · resolved market
FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4e2b517795d1dbdcdb2098eb7b654e0bf34f956613bfb6f7b00055b90027f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 5,262$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.72 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 4,538$3,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.88 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 74c | 4,152$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.43 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 3,136$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.4 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 29c | 1,790$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…6789backed Under | 64c | 1,569$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 62c | 1,250$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 38c | 1,043$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.34 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Over | 44c | 769.23$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 437.13$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 365.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 330$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 38c | 298.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 223.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 40c | 203.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 64c | 160.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Under | 60c | 110.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 104.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 78.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…deedbacked Under | 63c | 75.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 72.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 32c | 70.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…fb52backed Under | 69c | 53.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 41.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Under | 71c | 31.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 71c | 28.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 68c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 74c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed Under | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Under | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Under | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…c88cbacked Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…370fbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)GNK Dinamo Zagreb won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)GNK Dinamo Zagreb won
- Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5)FC Thun won
- Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.