Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane 2: Alex Bolt vs Hiroki Moriya
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e56f491ef79c4f81a5281d484680ce748b968a658398073e84682609a8027dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boltof Bolt, Moriya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bolt | 75c | 1,719$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.24 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Moriya | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Moriya | 16c | 1,206$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Moriya | 3c | 1,023$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bolt | 56c | 964.46$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.91 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Moriya | 31c | 678$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moriya | 21c | 651.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Moriya | 29c | 362.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Bolt | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Bolt | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Bolt | 66c | 197.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Moriya | 20c | 194$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Moriya | 24c | 177.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Moriya | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Bolt | 67c | 127.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Moriya | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…61fdbacked Moriya | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Bolt | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Moriya | 33c | 119.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Moriya | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Moriya | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Moriya | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Moriya | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Moriya | 15c | 97.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bolt | 56c | 94.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Moriya | 30c | 90.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Bolt | 79c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Moriya | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Moriya | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Bolt | 51c | 57.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Moriya | 42c | 51.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Moriya | 31c | 45.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Moriya | 31c | 40.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Moriya | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Moriya | 59c | 28.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…4f3fbacked Bolt | 70c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.