Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e9111bcfeef5564224b6804c6f9e08c476d3cba1f7f3b0137317d7e0c9816af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 4,870$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.75 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,986$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.29 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 32c | 1,153$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 2c | 1,151$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Under | 79c | 993.6$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 66c | 736.93$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.07 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 34c | 671.59$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Under | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 78c | 358.37$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Under | 65c | 292$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 288.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 68c | 145.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…6f2abacked Over | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 78c | 128.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Under | 70c | 127.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 35c | 90.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 65c | 90.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 66c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 34c | 42.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…79b1backed Under | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 79c | 29.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: FC Tōkyō 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: FC Tōkyō O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: FC Tōkyō O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: JEF United Ichihara Chiba O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: JEF United Ichihara Chiba O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.