Tennis · resolved market
Milan: Niels McDonald vs Juan Martin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e962b317c1c5d972cd95fe9fee43d93ec905f28375a07a659635146f2d810b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Martinof Niels McDonald, Juan Martin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Niels McDonald | 56c | 6,292$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,492.47 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Martin | 45c | 4,669$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.33 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Juan Martin | 43c | 3,855$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.3 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Niels McDonald | 58c | 3,656$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.42 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf3…e802backed Niels McDonald | 16c | 1,500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.58 | 477 | 28.1%134 W · 343 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Niels McDonald | 43c | 1,067$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…f67abacked Juan Martin | 77c | 841.29$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juan Martin | 70c | 804.26$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Niels McDonald | 61c | 781.72$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Juan Martin | 53c | 726.42$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.91 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Niels McDonald | 59c | 657.74$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.72 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Juan Martin | 34c | 488.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Niels McDonald | 46c | 440$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Juan Martin | 38c | 370.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…5166backed Niels McDonald | 64c | 357.94$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.08 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…420dbacked Niels McDonald | 35c | 341.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Juan Martin | 39c | 309.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Juan Martin | 61c | 274.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Juan Martin | 53c | 274.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Niels McDonald | 58c | 267.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Niels McDonald | 58c | 266.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Juan Martin | 38c | 234.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.89 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…4fbabacked Juan Martin | 41c | 225.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Niels McDonald | 37c | 210.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Niels McDonald | 6c | 204.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Juan Martin | 39c | 175.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Niels McDonald | 21c | 141.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Juan Martin | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Juan Martin | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Juan Martin | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Martin | 60c | 109$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Juan Martin | 37c | 106$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Juan Martin | 62c | 88.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Niels McDonald | 17c | 87.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Niels McDonald | 44c | 82.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Martin | 43c | 78.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…0b12backed Niels McDonald | 31c | 71.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Niels McDonald | 39c | 63.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Juan Martin | 42c | 61.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Juan Martin | 44c | 59.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Juan Martin | 68c | 58.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Niels McDonald | 64c | 58.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Juan Martin | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Juan Martin | 37c | 55.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Juan Martin | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 335 | 57%191 W · 144 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Juan Martin | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Niels McDonald | 64c | 51.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Juan Martin | 37c | 45.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Juan Martin | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Juan Martin | 45c | 41.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Juan Martin | 36c | 39.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…626ebacked Niels McDonald | 63c | 31.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Niels McDonald | 35c | 29.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Juan Martin | 38c | 29.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Niels McDonald | 48c | 27.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Juan Martin | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Niels McDonald | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Niels McDonald | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Juan Martin | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 371 | 56.3%209 W · 162 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Niels McDonald | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Juan Martin | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.