La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb9fbefc9edc2df5520e99d3c046d1470b5f1114ba61c3b3338dd3abb1fede2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 23c | 1,650$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.16 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,633$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.81 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 1,512$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.99 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 20c | 507.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 77c | 207.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 8c | 199.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 192.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 175.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 76c | 143.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 22c | 141$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 61c | 118.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 30c | 112.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 18c | 98.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 22c | 91.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…5f80backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 30c | 56.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 74c | 55.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…4bb6backed Under | 78c | 53.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…cd9ebacked Under | 80c | 30.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…8b45backed Under | 63c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.