Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec3fc2168535bc70cd6a4595a91d39a32378b546df456a2f3242997ff7c7ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…f211backed Yes | 0c | 56,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 751.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.45 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 3c | 735.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 537.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bff…7818backed Yes | 5c | 498.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 12c | 485.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 381.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 367.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 4c | 274.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 265$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 257.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 234.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 213.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 187.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 19c | 182.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e5e0backed Yes | 11c | 165.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…822bbacked Yes | 25c | 152.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 150.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 142.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 11c | 136.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 19c | 118.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 118.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 12c | 114.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked Yes | 18c | 109.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 12c | 104.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 102.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…1d21backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 99.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 32c | 98.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 97.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 44c | 97.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 24c | 96.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 89.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 13c | 84.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes | 34c | 82.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 76.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 31c | 75.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 15c | 74.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 78c | 72.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 27c | 64.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 58.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…6dd7backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 27c | 48.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 46c | 48.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 42c | 47.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 65c | 45.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 77c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.