Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5db489e3bb9ae856fd9f9cfd4dafebc1b611fa05cb3f4801573f1a6fc837565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x649e…260fbacked No | 0c | 3,093$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 60c | 2,224$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.52 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 4c | 867.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 38c | 857.32$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.28 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 77c | 788.23$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 16c | 725.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 76c | 583.79$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 79c | 567.8$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 38c | 516.06$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 28c | 480.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 23c | 457.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 39c | 410.41$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.46 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 349.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 345.66$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 5c | 317.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 8c | 299$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 55c | 277.11$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 263.2$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 244.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 30c | 235.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 47c | 232.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 17c | 223.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 212.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 45c | 208.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 197.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 62c | 197.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x043b…3380backed No | 41c | 185.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 67c | 151.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 149.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 79c | 130.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 129.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…014fbacked Yes | 77c | 127.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 123.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 123.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 10c | 121.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 121.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 60c | 120.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 19c | 120.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 120.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 16c | 102.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 17c | 100.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 99.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked No | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 39c | 86.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 40c | 86.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 78.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…32b2backed No | 64c | 75.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 75.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 38c | 75.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 39c | 72.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes | 40c | 70.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 41c | 69.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 62c | 66.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 63.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 54c | 61.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 35c | 59.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 59.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…bd06backed Yes | 57c | 58.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 47c | 57.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 25c | 55.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 35c | 52.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…4e56backed No | 35c | 48.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 37c | 47.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 78c | 47.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 47.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 40c | 46.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 75c | 46.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 37c | 46.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 44.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 43.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 41.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 40.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 59c | 40.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…0bfcbacked No | 67c | 39.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 59c | 39.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 37.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 51c | 37.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…44c4backed Yes | 40c | 37.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 59c | 36.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 59c | 36.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 34c | 36.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 58c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 35.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.