TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x649e…260fbacked No0c3,093$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes60c2,224$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.521,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x982e…f467backed No4c867.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.381520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes38c857.32$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes77c788.23$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No16c725.6$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.584,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes76c583.79$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9512348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2949…4cc8backed Yes79c567.8$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.935558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe019…f862backed Yes38c516.06$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.328021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No28c480.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8521865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab08…8825backed No23c457.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.551546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes39c410.41$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4623035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes41c349.67$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6517838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes79c345.66$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No5c317.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8946626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cb…a1c7backed No8c299$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.441127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No55c277.11$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0629748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c263.2$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.835,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c244.64$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.892,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No30c235.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7219547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes47c232.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No17c223.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2834057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c212.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes45c208.39$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8332041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc3…b884backed Yes35c199.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.992227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c197.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.342,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No62c197.62$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5219071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x043b…3380backed No41c185.65$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes67c151.39$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8316631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c149.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.372,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…64f4backed No21c133.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a14…49d5backed Yes79c130.5$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.823831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes36c129.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958f…014fbacked Yes77c127.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.263100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c123.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.792,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes40c123.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No10c121.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7216740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No72c121.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4757038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed No60c120.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.584231%13 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10a4…2895backed No19c120.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.293250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No68c120.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.091,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No16c102.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8628954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed No17c100.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8430131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c99.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.455,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714c…9c5fbacked No58c95.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.564452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes39c86.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7519648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes40c86.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8814062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No22c78.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…32b2backed No64c75.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes40c75.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3826738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes38c75.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7924139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes41c73.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.279852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes39c72.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4138633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes40c70.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.661346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes41c69.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0311362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f02…c78fbacked No62c66.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.621353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c63.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.563,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e5…63d3backed No54c61.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.482045%9 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a9…6747backed Yes35c59.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.841926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c59.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dfa…bd06backed Yes57c58.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes47c57.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.613644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No25c55.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5917855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No35c52.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6224768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes32c50.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2225042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…4e56backed No35c48.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.211040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes37c47.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307955.7%44 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes78c47.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.374946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes47c47.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2240242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes40c46.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0451321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes75c46.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8411140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes37c46.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.182133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab14…e786backed Yes28c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.611243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c44.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No63c43.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes33c41.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No60c40.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No59c40.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.920942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes26c39.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.598325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e98…0bfcbacked No67c39.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.65520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No59c39.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No62c38.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No64c37.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.372952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x124a…b245backed Yes51c37.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.382454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed1…44c4backed Yes40c37.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No59c36.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5516575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No59c36.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe117…5c22backed Yes34c36.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+65.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No58c35.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6112057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes34c35.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.