Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2584fbdf2e7ebb53591f540973cce865a87729ed26089604ab145aba7b8eb984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 8c | 1,635$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed Yes | 8c | 1,053$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 5c | 995.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 5c | 920.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 841.17$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 686.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 499.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 72c | 393$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 4c | 382.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 22c | 318.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 307.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 28c | 296.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 32c | 294.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 6c | 287.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 25c | 249.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 238.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 15c | 229.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 5c | 227.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 47c | 197.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 186.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 173$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 74c | 150.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 20c | 137.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 22c | 128.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 113.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 53c | 105.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 100.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 99.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 96.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 92.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 26c | 89.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 87.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 78.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 25c | 78.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 74.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 73.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 69.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 22c | 68.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 64.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 74c | 55.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 25c | 53.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 50.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 50.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 75c | 47.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 36c | 47.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 53c | 47.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 46.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 64c | 45.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 72c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 40.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 72c | 36.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 74c | 36.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 68c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 44c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 43c | 33.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 73c | 33.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 73c | 32.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 28.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 42c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 78c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 69c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 48c | 21.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 72c | 19.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 74c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 74c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 73c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 78c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 74c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.