Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f19386f52c5ceb6eeb55967f25cb6109673bfe16c8b579900f87721a6899af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 474.34$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 448.45$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 391.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 386.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.33 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 18c | 235.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 213.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 203.12$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 191.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 187$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 156.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 149.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 22c | 148.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 146.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 131.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 19c | 125.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 27c | 125.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 117.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 107.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 23c | 106.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 92.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 19c | 88.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 84.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 83.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 64.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 26c | 62.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 19c | 56.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 19c | 56.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 53.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 28c | 52.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 24c | 52.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 73c | 48.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 80c | 40.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 70c | 34.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 78c | 26.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 68c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 78c | 20.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 74c | 19.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.